HO CHI MINH CITY, November 2025 — Vietnam has approved the ambitious North–South high-speed railway linking its major cities, with a total estimated cost of up to US $67 billion under a full public‑investment model.

However, recent developments have moved the project into a funding deadlock. Two leading domestic conglomerates VinSpeed (part of Vingroup) and Thaco Group have submitted competing proposals to build the railway, each offering to supply roughly 20 % of the required capital themselves, while asking the state to provide the remaining ~80 % via zero‑interest or government‑guaranteed loans.

VinSpeed in its 2025 proposal asked for a 35‑year, zero‑interest state loan for 80 % of the cost (excluding land‑clearance and resettlement costs), while Thaco proposed sourcing the 80 % from financial institutions, backed by state guarantees and interest subsidies over a 30‑year repayment period.

Regulators, including the Ministry of Finance, have warned that such generous state financing could expose the government to substantial fiscal liabilities from interest subsidies to default risk potentially undermining public debt safety and harming Vietnam’s credit rating.

Moreover, while proponents argue private‑sector management could speed up project delivery and recoup costs within 30–35 years, current revenue projections suggest that operating income would likely be insufficient to cover both operational expenses and debt servicing under the favourable loan structure sought, casting doubt on the financial feasibility.

As of late 2025, the project stands at a critical juncture: its planned start date (previously suggested as 2026) depends on whether Vietnam’s government will accept the investment proposals on the terms requested or whether the financing structure will be renegotiated.

Source: The Business Times